Remember Paul, the Octopus? Yes, the same one who was a sensation during the 2010 World Cup? As it is, passions run high when it is a football match. As for the World Cup, the stadium is literally charged; both on the field and off the field, that is, in the stands.
Dashed difficult it is to guess who would win. Anything and everything can happen in those ninety minutes and, at times, beyond. Paul, however, used to predict the result of a match before it began, and his success rate was phenomenal. Twelve of his fourteen predictions were right, and both for the host country, Germany where Sir Paul, Herr Octopus resided.
Why do I remember that joke taken most sportingly then, as his strike rate flooded the market with wise parrots, genius doggies, and what have you? Significantly, all such animals are much better at predicting the future results than the psephologists!
Interesting is this fact. The psephologists are highly educated. They have the latest technologies to help them. Statistics is literally at their finger tips. Yet they lack the animal instinct when it comes to predict the election results, the voters' mood.
Election after election, country after country, the poll forecasts regularly go wrong! What I find rather funny is that they never accede their defeat gracefully. In fact, at times, candidates might; but the psephologists, never!
They would always say that the pendulum swung too far right which is to be interpreted as the death of democracy. In my opinion, nothing can be further from the truth or more wrong because in a democracy, by definition, the people's mandate matters, the voters' decision is final.
Never do the Nostradamus-es of psephology accept this fact as it would mean acceding their defeat, their wrong judgement! Instead they quote the far right! Hardly right, right? Hence the title of our blog today!
Pratima@ Why does psephology fail? I suppose the sample they analyse might not be adequate. Their premises might be prejudiced is another possibility. May be, it is sheer election or the voter fatigue. Most often, however, their right is not right, and they end up accusing the far right!
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